Monday Market Update

Global central banks continued to add monetary stimulus this week, which was favorable for US bonds. The economic data was roughly neutral. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it will increase its level of monetary stimulus, following similar recent moves by the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB). The goal of the central banks is to boost economic growth and to reduce joblessness. The primary tool used by the central banks is bond purchases. The increased demand for bonds, including US mortgage-backed securities (MBS), from central bank purchases has helped push mortgage rates lower.

The housing data released this week continued to show improvement in the sector. August Existing Home Sales rose 8% from July to the highest level since May 2010. August Housing Starts increased 2% from July, and Building Permits for single-family homes rose to the highest level since March 2010. The September NAHB Home Builders confidence index rose for the fifth straight month to the highest level since June 2006.

Next week, New Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. The final revisions to second quarter GDP, Durable Orders, and Pending Home Sales will come out on Thursday. Personal Income, Core PCE inflation, and Chicago PMI manufacturing will be released on Friday. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment will round out the schedule. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Copyright @ 2012 MBSQuoteline

The Market Update

 

While there was a full slate of economic data and Treasury auctions this week, investors were focused on a speech by Fed Chief Bernanke on Friday. The resulting increase in expectations for future Fed action was positive for mortgage rates, which ended the week a little lower.

Bernanke did not commit to implementing any additional easing measures in his highly anticipated speech from Jackson Hole, but his comments caused investors to raise their expectations for a third round of Fed asset purchases (called quantitative easing or QE3). Bernanke emphasized that a high jobless rate imposes large costs on the economy and left the door open for further easing. QE3 would likely involve Fed purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), so mortgage rates improved after his speech. The possibility of additional monetary stimulus also caused stocks to rally on Friday.

The housing sector data released this week continued to show improvement. July Pending Home Sales increased 2% from June to the highest level since April 2010, which was shortly before the deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. Pending Home Sales are a leading indicator of future housing market activity. The June S&P/ Case-Shiller 20-city home price index increased 2.3% from May.

The biggest economic event next week may be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Investors will be watching whether there will be an announcement of additional aid measures for European countries with debt troubles. The biggest US economic report next week will be the important Employment data on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month, particularly this month coming out a little before the next Fed meeting on September 12. Before the employment data, ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending will be released on Tuesday. Productivity is scheduled for Wednesday. ISM Services will come out on Thursday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day.