Monday Market Report || Interest Rates?

 

During the past week, comments from a Fed official increased investor expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, causing mortgage rates to move a little higher. The week's economic data was mostly right on target and had little net effect.

On Tuesday, Fed member Dennis Lockhart gave investors the impression that the first federal funds rate hike is likely to take place soon. In essence, he said that he believes that a rate hike will be appropriate in September unless the economy significantly underperforms expectations. While other Fed officials may feel differently, investors took this as a warning to be prepared for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting on September 17.

The major economic reports released since Lockhart's comments showed that the economy remains on track to meet his requirements for a rate hike. Wednesday's ISM Services data revealed an unexpectedly large increase to the highest level since 2005. Friday's Employment data, the biggest report of the month, matched the consensus forecast across the board. The economy continued its pace of strong job gains above 200K with the addition of 215K jobs in July. The Unemployment Rate remained at 5.3%. Average Hourly Earnings, an indicator of wage growth, were 2.2% higher than a year ago.

Looking ahead, we will get more labor market data on Tuesday with the JOLTS report, which measures job openings and labor turnover rates. After that, Retail Sales will be released on Thursday. Since retail sales account for roughly 70% of economic activity, this is one of the biggest reports of the month. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic activity, will come out on Friday. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. 

Copyright @ 2015 MBSQuoteline

First quarter 2013 sets aggressive pace for Texas real estate

Today, the Texas Association of REALTORS® released the 2013-Q1 edition of the Texas Quarterly Housing Report, showing surging demand for Texas homes at the start of the year as well as rising prices and shrinking inventory. Fueled by Texas’s population and job growth, the report bodes well for the summer selling season.

Shad Bogany, chairman of the Texas Association of REALTORS®, commented: “2012 was a strong year for Texas real estate and, based on these first-quarter results, 2013 looks to be even stronger. We’ve heard a lot about the growth of Texas and now we’re starting to really see the impact on our real estate market.”

As featured in the report, 53,937 single-family homes were sold in Texas in the first quarter of 2013, which is 17.53% more than the same quarter of the prior year. Of the 48 markets included in the report, 40 markets featured increases in sales, indicating the surge is broad-based throughout the state.

The median price for Texas homes in 2013-Q1 was $158,000, which is 7.04% more than the first quarter of 2012. In the same timeframe, the average price was $204,718 – that’s 6.87% more than 2012-Q1. The median price for Texas homes has steadily increased, exceeding or matching the price of the prior year every quarter since the Texas Quarterly Housing Report began in 2009.

“Historically, the median price for Texas homes has increased about four percent each year and we usually see the biggest jump in price between the first and second quarters,” said Jim Gaines, Ph.D., economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “So, with price increases already in the range of seven percent in the first quarter, we could see Texas homes increase in value significantly this year.”

However, Gaines also offered a strong caution, “We’ll only realize our potential for increased sales volume if more sellers enter the market and start listing their properties, increasing the inventory of homes for sale.”

In first quarter 2013, the market featured 4.2 months of inventory, which is 1.7 months less than the prior year. That is significantly less than the 6.5 months of inventory cited by the Real Estate Center as a market in which the supply of homes is balanced with demand.

Gaines explained, “There is clearly demand for Texas homes and rising prices are encouraging more homeowners to consider listing their properties. However, if a homeowner wants to move up, they must be able to find a property to move to, so more supply is needed to capture the growth potential in the market.”

Gaines continued, “In the coming months, I expect we’ll start to hear national news reports about increasing sales in other markets, possibly exceeding those in Texas. That’s because other markets boomed in the mid-2000s and busted in the late 2000s, meaning they need dramatic increases in sales volume and price to recover. I call that an ‘echo boom’ and it’s more indicative of market fluctuations than fundamentals. That never happened in Texas, so the increases you’re seeing in our state are indicative of true increases in demand, driven by population growth. Assuming we continue to add jobs as we have recently, that will make our increases more sustainable.”

The Texas Association of REALTORS® has been working to help the state absorb that growth, advocating for homeowners at the Texas Capitol during the current legislative session. Texas REALTORS® have advanced ideas on improving infrastructure for transportation and water in the state as well as consumer-protection provisions in the property-tax loan industry, mortgage lending, and the property-appraisal process. The 83rd Texas Legislature regular session ends May 31.

Chairman Bogany concluded, “The word is out that Texas is a great place to live and these results are further evidence of that. Now, Texas REALTORS® are on a mission to ensure that remains the case and help our state provide for the needs of its homeowners today and far into the future.”

The Texas Quarterly Housing Report is issued four times per year by the Texas Association of REALTORS® with multiple listing service data compiled and analyzed by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

About the Texas Quarterly Housing Report

Data for the Texas Quarterly Housing Report is analyzed by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University using statistics compiled from 48 multiple listing services in markets throughout Texas. The report includes data for single-family home sales over the course of one quarter and is scheduled for release by the Texas Association of REALTORS® on the following dates each year (or the next business day): Feb. 1, May 1, Aug. 1, and Nov. 1. This report is issued to the media, local REALTOR® organizations, and published on the Texas Association of REALTORS®’ consumer Web site, TexasRealEstate.com.

About the Texas Association of REALTORS®

With approximately 80,000 members, the Texas Association of REALTORS® is a professional membership organization that represents all aspects of real estate in Texas. We advocate on behalf of Texas REALTORS® and private-property owners to keep homeownership affordable, protect private-property rights, and promote public policies that benefit homeowners. Visit TexasRealEstate.com to learn more.

5 Credit Myths - Busted!

When it comes to credit, sometimes the largest challenge is the most difficult to surmount: we simply don’t know what we don’t know, so our assumptions and inaccurate beliefs run wild and free through our mental real estate. Most of the time, there’s no harm; following finance fundamentals like paying every bill on time, every time, keep us out of credit danger zones. 

But when it’s approaching the time to buy, refi or even rent a home, relatively small credit score differences can stop you from getting your dream home, and can cost (or save) you thousands of dollars in interest over the life of your loan.

If you’re at a time in your life where it makes sense to invest some time and effort into optimizing your credit score, here are five common credit myths we’d like to help you bust without further ado:

Myth #1:  Having lots of cash, a great income, or tons of equity, makes your FICO score less relevant. 
Fact:  No matter how much cash you have, if you want a mortgage, you must meet the lender’s FICO score guidelines.  Of course, if you’re flush with cash, it should be relatively easy to make your monthly payments on time.  But if you have come into cash relatively recently or you’re coming off a rough financial patch, lenders don’t not look at your credit score on the theory that your other assets diminish your credit riskiness. Most lenders want nothing more than to avoid having to foreclose on a home, even if the homeowner has other assets. 

And the best predictor of whether you’ll default on a loan in the future is how you’ve handled your credit in the past, so your credit score will drive whether you qualify for a home loan and what interest rate you’re charged, no matter how much you make.  

Two exceptions: if you buy a home with all cash, or take a hard money loan, which usually requires a much larger-than-average down payment and interest rate, you might be able to bypass credit score scrutiny, but you’ll pay for it.

Myth #2:  Having no debt or no late payments means you have great credit.  

Fact:  Financial responsibility and good credit are two different things. Your FICO score is meant to be a measure of your responsibility when it comes to managing debt, as proven by the fact that you have credit accounts, use them regularly and don’t abuse them.  

Having no credit accounts or debts doesn’t give you good credit - it gives you no credit.  And on the other end of the credit usage spectrum, being maxed out on various credit accounts all the time, submitting lots of credit applications and other credit moves that indicate you may abuse your credit can actually depress your score.  Best practice is to have several credit accounts (student and car loans count!) that you actively and responsibly use on a monthly basis.

Tip: FICO gives a top score to accounts with balances that are 30 percent of the credit limit, so if you can keep your credit card or loan account balances at or around that mark, even better.

Myth #3:  Checking your own credit score in advance prevents surprises when you apply for a mortgage.

Fact:  Your mortgage originator (broker or banker) must pull their own version of your report from their own provider, and it might have a very different score, rating scale or even different line items than the free or paid report you pulled online.  This is why it’s imperative to start working with a mortgage professional as early as possible - a year in advance is not overkill - so you can detect any errors or issues and get their recommended fix in the works with plenty of lead time.

Myth #4:  If you’ve had a foreclosure or short sale, your credit report will be damaged for 7 years.
   
Fact: Derogatory credit items, like late mortgage payments, foreclosures and short sales, appear on your credit report for 7 years, but your credit score can be rehabilitated enough to buy a home or obtain other credit in less time, depending on your circumstances. Your post-short sale or foreclosure waiting period depends on a number of things, including what type of loan you’ll be seeking to buy your next home with, how much cash you’ll have to put down and whether there were any extenuating circumstances involved in losing your home in the first place; some loans allow for an immediate purchase, others require a waiting period of 2, 4 5 or even 7 years after the loss of a home.

Of course, your FICO score is also a key criteria in a post-home loss “buy,” but interestingly enough, the length of time it takes to get your FICO score back up depends on how high it was beforehand.  Earlier this year, the New York Times reported that it would take a consumer with a 680 FICO score three years after a foreclosure to bring their score back to that level, while it might take someone with a 780 FICO score (near-perfect) seven years for full score recovery.  

And keep in mind that as your foreclosure or short sale ages, its impact on your score will decrease, too.

Myth #5:  Short sales have much less impact on your credit score than foreclosures.

Fact: Hear ye, hear ye - short sales and foreclosures have the same impact on your credit score, according to the FICO folks themselves. (The only exceptions are for short sales or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure where the property was not upside down, which are few and far between, if they’re not just a real estate urban legend!)

               

However, the number of missed payments you had before your home was lost to foreclosure or short sale might weigh on how gravely injured your FICO score is in the process. At the going rate at which banks are foreclosing on homes - clocking roughly 2 years of missed payments before a home is repossessed - your FICO score could take an even greater hit than if you were able to divest of it via a short sale in 1 year’s time.


Call us today to get ready for the New Year's Home purchase.  Let us hep you get things in place and answer any questions you may have about purchasing your next home.


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By Tara-Nicholle Nelson |